The Danger of `Conventional Wisdom'

From `Dewey Defeats Truman' to dropping the ball on Northwestern's comeback win over Minnesota, Chicago Tribune headline blunders offer a lesson in following the facts, not relying on presumptions.

Sports, journalism and mistakes (of one kind or another) have been recurring column themes since I launched The Inside Edge column six months ago.

Today, I open with a blending of all three: the Chicago Tribune’s front page gaffe on Sunday, when it jumped the gun on Northwestern University’s all-but-certain loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

It’s circled below:

“Northwestern’s furious rally falls just short in a 31-24 loss to Minnesota in Evanston.”

What actually happened is Northwestern capped a remarkable comeback from 21 points down by scoring a tying touchdown with five seconds to go, then won in overtime, 37-34. Someone at the newspaper didn’t keep their eye on the ball.

And another thing—scroll back up and take a closer look at the bottom line on that Tribune synopsis of college football games. No, chciagotribune.com/sports is not where you’ll find any coverage, because the second “c” and the first “i” are transposed.

Conjuring `Dewey Defeats Truman’

It didn’t take long for some to parlay the “furious rally falls just short” mistake into references to one of the most historic headline blunders in journalism annals. Making the connection is understandable when you recall that the 1948 snafu—the “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline—also appeared on Page 1 of the Tribune.

To be more precise, it was atop the one-star (or first) edition of the Tribune’s post-election edition, or roughly 150,000 copies.

Though there is a vast difference in the significance between a college football contest and a U.S. Presidential election, it seems to me that these episodes do have at least one parallel.

In both cases, there was so much momentum of “conventional wisdom” hovering over the events that it was easy to discard facts that did not align with those presumptions.

In the case of Northwestern football, the “conventional wisdom” was that the program is in such upheaval after the hazing scandal that emerged this summer that they stood little chance of winning a game within the Big Ten conference.

(Click below to read my July 29th column on the topic)

On top of that perception, the Wildcats had been blown out in two prior losses. And that one win against the University of Texas at El Paso? Easily dismissed as a weak non-conference opponent, and it spares NU from a winless season.

Consequently, when the score was 31-10, in favor of Minnesota early in the second half Saturday, it was tempting to write off this game as another defeat for Northwestern.

Sure, they scored two touchdowns to make it closer, but there’s no way they’ll come all the way back and win. Right?

Now, let’s flash back to 75 autumns ago. That’s when New York Governor Thomas Dewey was regarded, through national polling and whatever other indicators were deemed reliable at the time, as a surefire landslide winner in the race for U.S. President over incumbent Harry Truman.

Further down, we’ll get to the famous “Dewey Defeats Truman” photograph but first let’s look at a few clues along the trail—the Tribune’s editorial run-up to that day.

Here’s from the front page on Monday, November 1, 1948:

Check out Arthur Sears Henning’s piece: it “probably will be a landslide,” with Dewey’s prospects for winning in 35 or more states deemed “likely.”

The next day, Tuesday, November 2, 1948 (Election Day), also on the Tribune’s front page:

Again, “landslide” stands out in the headline—instead of “predicted,” as the day before, this time it is “expected.” About the same difference.

Among Henning’s lines from this article that did not age well: “President Truman will be lucky to carry eight or nine states.”

As it turned out, Truman carried 28 states, to Dewey’s 16, and won the electoral college, 303-189 (with Strom Thurmond securing 39 electoral votes).

So, that was the soil tilled at the Tribune for what you see below, the much-mocked front page of its one-star edition after the polls closed.

From the front page of the Nov. 5, 1948 Fort Worth Star-Telegram, one of numerous papers to pick up on the gaffe.

By the way, here’s the eventual headline (see the FINAL in the upper right corner) that the Tribune pivoted to for Wednesday, November 3, 1948. What stands out to me is that the newspaper was still clinging to the premise that it was Dewey’s race to lose.

Which, of course, he did.